Friday, November 12, 2021

Huge Change At Liverpool – But Michael Edwards Leaves His Hand-Picked Legacy With Julian Ward by Paul Tomkins

 https://tomkinstimes.com/2021/11/huge-change-at-liverpool-but-michael-edwards-leaves-his-hand-picked-legacy-with-julian-ward/


In By Paul TomkinsFree

 

Edwards to leave in summer of 2022, his protege Julian Ward to replace him. Reasons for Edwards departure explained below, along with profile of Ward.

 A few weeks ago I was informed that, in need of a break after just passing his tenth year at Liverpool – and following a few hectic and stressful years that spanned the greatest imaginable successes and the utter left-field madness of a global pandemic (that made everyone’s job much harder) – Michael Edwards would be leaving at the end of the season, to be replaced by Julian Ward. 

It was made clear that, currently, Edwards has no plans to go anywhere else; no taking the secret recipe to any rivals. 

(I also assume he’s also not free to immediately take on another job, even after his contract expires, but I’m not entirely sure on that; but it’s not his intention at this point. However, if he is free to do so, perhaps Newcastle United, who would clearly love to have him, are not yet classed as “rivals”. Things change quickly in football.) 

Liverpool were flying when the pandemic hit, and have been affected maybe more than any other club, as the team was at its very peak (in terms of age as well as brilliance), and then the sudden loss of in excess of £100m in income – and no clear end in sight – made contract renegotiations almost impossible, and slowed down transfer activity. 

Given that there will be a predictable backlash, it’s worth making it clear that Edwards feels he is leaving on excellent terms with FSG, whom he knows backed him, and where there remained a complete synergy of vision. It’s not the case that they did not want to keep him on beyond the end of his current contract.

Indeed, Edwards himself believes that the “FSG way” in football was left in his hands to create; with the help of Mike Gordon, the most football-savvy of the owners, and obviously the super-smart analysts that includes Ian Graham, who also arrived a decade ago. After all, FSG are not football experts; but they found Edwards and Graham, via Damien Comolli, and then trusted Edwards to shape the way things were done. 

You may dislike some of their ownership ideas, but Edwards leaving is not something that the owners can be blamed for. (Of course, they will be, as that’s the way a certain portion of the fanbase operates.)  

The “Edwards way” can continue in Edwards’ absence; indeed, it has been designed to. Vital members of the brains’ trust, like Ian Graham, remain in place. The methods won’t change. The same would be true of hiring a new manager (albeit Jürgen Klopp is obviously unique, in being one of the “all-bases” managers who also have the gravitas to be taken seriously by even world-class players).

Edwards has no doubt that, in Julian Ward, he’s handing over to an ideal candidate; a man who has mirrored his own career from modest playing days and moving up through the different levels of behind-the-scenes work in scouting, analytical and personnel specialties; a man he has had shadowing him, and learning the ropes, over what will eventually be an 18-month period by the time the changeover happens. (Indeed, ward is even shared in their names. This part may be coincidental…)

Ward speaks various languages (particularly the vital languages of Spanish and Portuguese, which help not just with Spain and Portugal but all of South America), and that will help in the international world of negotiations. Jürgen Klopp is also a big fan of Ward’s from their work together over the years.

Edwards, perhaps like Peter Robinson, will go down as a rare behind-the-scenes legend; no statues will ever be built for them, but they helped lay vital foundations. 

Ward can now take that, and build further impressive layers on top. 

In an open letter to supporters posted on Liverpoolfc.com, Edwards said:

“To be part of this club during this period has been a privilege due to the people I have been fortunate enough to work with and the success we have enjoyed.

“I had always planned to cap my time at the club to a max of 10 years. I’ve loved working here, but I am a big believer in change. I think it’s good for the individual and, in a work setting, good for the employer, too. Over my time here we have changed so many things (hopefully for the better) but someone new brings a different perspective, new ideas and can hopefully build (or change) on the things that have been put in place beforehand.

“Julian has been building up the skill set for this role for many years. Last year, he took on the role of assistant sporting director and over the past 12 months he has been introduced to other facets of the role that are vital to its success. I believe he is ideal for the role.

“Over the coming season I will continue to support him as we complete the leadership transition.”

Plus, Jürgen Klopp said:

“I wish Michael and his wonderful family all the best, for whatever they choose to do next.

“I know he isn’t leaving immediately or in haste, which is cool, so we still have some time to work together. If we are as fortunate and blessed, as we have been so far, maybe we can create more special memories for our club in this remaining time.

“He has been a constant presence during my period at LFC and his contribution to our success is clear for everyone to see.

“I have complete trust in Mike Gordon and the wider ownership group in their vision for what comes next. Julian and I have worked closely since he became loans and pathway manager, plus even more so in his wider role during the past 12 months.

“We have so many brilliant people here, all of whom contribute to what we have achieved and I have nothing but confidence we will continue to develop, progress and improve as an organisation.”

(See link for further statements from LFC.)

Julian Ward Profile

As you can see below, Ward has an extensive and varied CV, that covers so many different areas, and ends with him shadowing Michael Edwards whilst completing a PhD in Applied Sport and Exercise Science, Talent Management Strategies in Professional Football.

Julian Ward, born in Aintree in 1981:

  1. Played football for Morecambe between 1997 and 2001.
  2. BSc (Honours) in Sports Science from John Moores University (1999-2002)
  3. Became a Performance Analyst at the FA (2001-2002), delivering pre-/post-game performance analysis for England U17/U19/U20 international football teams.
  4. Left the FA to become a Football Consultant at ProZone (2002-2003) – in the capacity to deliver opposition scouting and analysis for Preston North End.
  5. Employed at John Moores University as Sports Scholarship Manager (2003-2005)
  6. Started playing for Larne Football Club in Northern Ireland from 2005 till 2007.
  7. Big Break: Became Head of Analysis and Technical Scouting for Portuguese National Team (2008-2010)
  8. In 2010, moved to Manchester City as South American Scouting Strategist (2010-2012) – Talent identification, player recruitment and pathways for player development considered elite (Non-EU)
  9. In 2012, moved to Liverpool FC from Manchester City. Joined as European Scouting Manager (Spain and Portugal) (2012-2015)
  10. A new role was created for him as Loan Pathways and Football Partnerships Manager (2015-2020)
  11. Promoted as Assistant Sporting Director in December 2020.
  12. Doctorate in Applied Sport and Exercise Science, Talent Management Strategies in Professional Football (2018-2021)

Big Break (2009)

• Ward on his big break with the Portugal national team.

• More on Ward on his big break with the Portugal national team.

“Julian landed his dream job as part of a four-strong scouting team in July last year when Portugal manager Carlos Quieroz, the former Manchester United coach, signed him up last year after his appointment.”

“It can be a small world in football,” explains Julian.

“Someone I worked with for the England FA was appointed to a job at Manchester United and Mr Quieroz got to know about me when he was looking for a person familiar with the software and the technical programmes they used.”

“I went to the World Cup in Germany with my brother Dominic but we camped out over there and it will be a very different to see it from the inside.

“Being part of a professional set-up, you are learning so much every day and for me it’s about being a sponge and soaking up as much knowledge and experience as possible..

About Ward’s playing itch while working:

And at one time Julian had hoped to make it as a professional footballer in his own right.

He played as a midfielder with Morecambe and Southport in the North-West and other clubs, which helped subsidise him as a student… until work got in the way.

“I miss playing football and still get that feeling when seeing the Portugal guys even training, but I am lucky to be able to work in the sport at this level.”

Julian graduated with a Sports Science degree from John Moores University in Liverpool, where there was a strong connection with Premier League clubs developing computer-based tools used to analyse match data and performance.

Many of the students spent time at clubs such as Liverpool, Everton and Manchester City as part of a mutually beneficial relationship and from Julian went to work with the England FA youth set-up. 

“…Around September 2015, we realised that there was this bridge that we had to create to help players make the step from U23s football to Melwood and first-team football…”

Consequently, a new position was created: loan pathways and football partnerships manager.

It’s a role Ward was asked to take on and remains in to this day.

“I became responsible for making partnerships and networks with clubs around England and Europe,” he explains, during a recent conversation at Melwood.

“It’s my job to work with our coaching staff and sporting director to make sure we have a network of good options in place for when the younger lads are ready to go out into senior football, or when fringe first-team players need competitive game time.

“We also need to put in place support processes to manage each player’s pathway once that decision is made.

“We need to first identify positive environments for players to go to and then make sure that when they go, they are developing remotely.”

On different types of loans:

There are, Ward explains, three different types of move when it comes to players leaving Liverpool on loan.

Along with ‘established first-team players who need game time… the club also sanctions temporary transfers for non-EU players…

“They’re all top talents within their generation, they all play for their respective national teams at U20 level, but we know that work permit-wise it’s a bit of a longer journey so we try to get them adapted to life and football in Europe and started on the process where they gain competitive experience,” Ward says.

“Hopefully that will increase their profile and credibility so when the time’s right, we can make that work permit application and bring them back into the fold.”

The third group involves the club’s ‘elite Academy players, who have proved themselves at U23 level and are looking for that next challenge’.

“The bar’s really high. 

“To nudge out of the way a Mo Salah, a Sadio Mane, a Firmino, our young players have got to be able to show that they can compete with senior international players, not only in games but in training. 

“We’ve got to make sure that the competitive experience they get is a positive one, right through the U18s and U23s and then when we feel they’ve reached a level where the next stage is playing for points and under pressure, a bit of exposure to the senior aspects of the game, then we have to look at other environments.”

“With the first or second loan, the players earn it by their performances in the U23s. They generate interest and the clubs across the Championship, League One, League Two are always in good attendance at our U23s games. 

“We discuss each player on a regular basis and try to judge whether they’re ready to go out, whether they’re needed to be part of the U23 or Melwood group, and we have to then balance that up with the other options in terms of loan interest. 

“Then we’ve got to try to make sure that we get the right coaching environment, the right competitive level that allows the player to continue on that journey of development.”

On loan player monitoring:

By no means does Ward’s involvement end once a player leaves Liverpool on loan, though.

“I coordinate the communication between the clubs,” he continues.

“The different departments across our club are connected with the loan club where we place a player – whether that be medical to medical, sports science to sports science, analysis to analysis or coaching to coaching – just so that we can make sure that when a player leaves us, the club they’re going to are fully furnished with where they’re at in terms of technical and physical development. 

“The very first week of the loan is about connecting different key contacts in the relevant departments so that the training load the player’s been exposed to prior to going out on loan can be communicated, as well as any medical issues and also development points.

“We look at areas of their game that we think ‘OK, this is where the player is at the start of the loan, by the end of the loan we’d hope to see some progress and improvements in these three or four specific coaching areas’. 

“Then, the clips from all the players’ games are fed back to us within 24-48 hours and I liaise with our scouting department and coaches to make sure that we get regular live viewings of games, but also we get out to the training ground to see them working in their environment Monday to Friday. 

“That’s well established now. It’s a combination of putting good communication processes in place and planning with the coaches and the scouting department to make sure we’ve got coverage so that the players still feel connected to the club.”

On Transfer Windows:

Ward’s work throughout the year helps to ensure the club are fully prepared for all eventualities when the summer and January transfer windows come around.

And, while ‘last-minute’ interest in Liverpool players is commonplace, he says the club are ‘very reluctant’ to get involved in such business as they strive to conduct background checks on all potential destinations prior to authorising a loan deal.

“My job prior to the windows is to have a good knowledge of the squads, have good relationships with coaches, heads of recruitment, sporting directors and get a feel that they know our players,” Ward states.

“With our games being very accessible with getting to Prenton Park or watching them on LFCTV, when a coach or head of recruitment phones up asking about a player generally they know the specific characteristics of them and we hope that starts the process. 

“We’ll go and look at what kind of opportunities there would be for those players to play, whether there’s a lot of senior players in their path or there are two or three places where they can go and stake a claim for a place in the team. 

“We do that due diligence ahead of the two windows and then if Jürgen, Alex and Michael think the time is right then the options get filtered down to positive ones, the stars align and the button’s pressed and the player goes out on loan.

“Obviously the player’s involved too. We keep them up to date with what we think is the plan for them between pre-season and Christmas and then the level of competitions that we’re in can change during the season.

“We have to balance that games programme with each individual player’s point of progression.”

• The Athletic on Ward’s promotion and his replacement, from December 2020:

Ward “…has proved to be a huge asset for Liverpool since arriving from Manchester City as the club’s European scouting manager for Spain and Portugal in 2012.

He was appointed loans manager in 2015 and since then his responsibilities have continued to grow.

Ward has massively impressed Gordon and Edwards with his knowledge and expertise as well as the relationships he has developed with staff, players, agents and rival clubs. Led by Ward, Liverpool have proved adept at using the loan market to develop young talent and enhance their value.

He has previously assisted Edwards on a number of transfers and contract renewals at academy level, and Liverpool see expanding his role as a logical next step.

He already enjoys a close working relationship with Edwards and that will be enhanced going forward.

Internally, Ward will be a key link between all of the different departments at Liverpool, from Jurgen Klopp and his coaching staff, to the medical and sports science team, and academy director Alex Inglethorpe.

Externally, Ward will be tasked with building on the extensive network of contacts he already possesses as he deals with players, agents and clubs to assist Edwards when it comes to selling players, buying players and contract negotiations.

The promotion of [David] Woodfine to the role of director of loan management is also important. Like Ward, he’s rated highly by both Gordon and Edwards. This is reward for his fine work as head of football projects and scouting operations since joining the club from West Ham United in 2014.

Liverpool are proud of their record in the loan market and believe that will be maintained with Woodfine at the helm. The transition period from Ward to Woodfine is already underway ahead of the January window.

The Future

Here’s to the next chapter in Liverpool’s story. The coming years will be testing, as key players age-out and Jürgen Klopp presumably still leaves, as planned, in 2024. 

As such, Liverpool are getting their reorganisation done now, ahead of those further transitional challenges, so that they don’t all collide; a potential parting gift from Edwards, to get his own succession sourced and sorted so successfully (it seems) without waiting until chaos reigns, and reactivity becomes the order of the day. 

Other clubs wait too long; Liverpool get things sorted. 

Sunday, November 7, 2021

Liverpool Continue To Show the Value of Not Signing New Players by Paul Tomkins

 https://tomkinstimes.com/2021/11/liverpool-continue-to-show-the-value-of-not-signing-new-players/

 

In a recent Athletic article, I noticed the following statement relating to Spurs’ regression in recent years:

“Not signing a player in the summer of 2018 and then reaching the Champions League final the following season was nothing short of a miracle. It wasn’t sustainable. The two years since Pochettino’s sacking have only served to demonstrate that.” 

So, can I just reiterate that, while spending money signing players is important (I’ve written books, academic papers and contributed to EU reports on the subject), the “sign-nobody summer” can actually often be a blessing and not a curse.

Obviously it’s not something you can do every summer, or perhaps even in successive summers (or seasons).

Spurs signed no one in 2018 and had their best-ever European season, yet it is painted as luck, ignoring the value of team understanding, which is vital for passing, pressing and team-bonding. As I’ve detailed before, most teamwork continues to further develop and blossom up to four years spent together. After that it can plateau, but obviously individual players can continue to develop, especially if they were young at the outset. 

In the summer of 2019 Liverpool signed no one (beyond a reserve keeper). They had the best league season in the club’s history, and were the fastest team to win the title in English football history. 

Again, just luck?

Last season Liverpool signed three first-team players, and they proved a mixed bag; all three spent months out with knee injuries. In total, nine players made their league debuts for the Reds. It was a season of chaos and turnover, in part wrecked by injuries. 

This summer, Liverpool signed just a single (promising) player, who has made just three league starts, meaning that 98% of the Reds’ players in the ten league XIs this season were already at the club; and 100% of the four Champions League XIs. 

With a midfield injury crisis, the Reds are still within a win of the top of the league table, and have romped their Champions League group. 

You could of course blame the midfield injury crisis on not buying more midfielders in the summer, but you could pay £100m for a new midfielder, and if a 15-stone defender launches two-footed and breaks his leg and dislocates his ankle, it’s not going to help much. Naby Keita, the Reds’ most expensive midfielder, could have suffered the same fate when a a 15-stone midfield launched two-footed into him a couple of weeks back. (As it was, one of Keita’s muscles was about to ping again.)

Liverpool bought a very special midfielder last season, and he almost got his knee snapped in two. Liverpool brought back a special young midfielder from loan this season, and he got his ankle blown apart. 

Harvey Elliott was the solution – not a new £100m signing. He was the Reds’ best player this season until the dangerous lunge that sent his foot one way and the rest of his leg the other.

If someone had snapped Trent Alexander-Arnold’s leg in two when he was first making waves at the same age, then paying £50m for another right-back would have been a short-term fix that could have created a long-term problem (i.e. Alexander-Arnold would not have had a place in the team to develop, upon his return).

This may be a counterfactual statement, but the thing is, you never know. You can never know which players will get random, violent, impact injuries, in advance of them happening. You can’t stockpile players – as Klopp has explained – in case you have a ton of injuries. It’s too costly (wages and fees), and it’s too disruptive (too many unhappy players pissing in the collective pool).

You can focus on traditionally durable players, but Virgil van Dijk was about as durable as it gets, until he suffered a force that must have felt like a lunatic riding a motorcycle into his kneecap at 50mph. (And Elliott managed a full season in the brutal Championship last season, aged 17.) 

In the summer of 2020, Virgil Van Dijk was worth £150m, barring Covid-based market vagaries. Had Liverpool spent £150m that summer to buy him (because, say, he was at Bayern Munich), then that would have been £150m spent in the rehab centre at the new training complex if the same collision occurred. Supreme injury record, then bam.  

Another example. Man City spent over £130m in 2019 and didn’t win the league that season. The season before, when they did win the league, they signed only Riyad Mahrez, who started just 14 league games, or one-third of the campaign. Basically, they won the league with the same side. 

This summer they’ve spent £100m on a single player, yet are dropping a lot of unexpected points, and that attacker has just one league goal. This season at least, in just over a quarter of a campaign, City’s results have regressed with Jack Grealish in the side. 

(Which isn’t to say that City and Grealish won’t start to rack up more points and goals, but does suggest that the £100m player is not an immediate perfect solution, even at that price. Another thing my research shows is that it’s the season after a big spending spree where clubs tend to progress, and City’s £130m signings of 2019 were important in 2020/21. The bigger the individual transfer fee the greater the odds of success, but it tends to move from around 40% for the cheapest to only 60% for the dearest.) 

None of which is to say that you shouldn’t sign players, obviously. My point is that it doesn’t have to be every single summer, and in great quantities.

Let’s go back to Spurs’ signings in the two years prior to signing no one in 2018. In total, £180m spent on: 

Victor Wanyama
Vincent Janssen
Juan Pablo Gonzalez Velasco
Georges-Kévin Nkoudou
Moussa Sissoko
Maximus Tainio
Davinson Sánchez
Paulo Gazzaniga
Juan Foyth
Serge Aurier
Fernando Llorente
Lucas Moura

Of those, only Moura has proved a consistent success, with Aurier horribly mixed (to the point where, bizarrely, he was released early from his contract), Sánchez not quite steady enough, and Sissoko only a belated success (around the time he turned 30). A couple of the signings were youngsters, but of the dozen, only Moura and Sánchez remain.

Spurs success in those seasons, which also included a 2nd-placed finish with a huge (for their budget) 86 points in 2017, was down to Harry Kane, Hugo Lloris, Kyle Walker, Danny Rose, Toby Alderweireld, Jan Vertonghen, Kieran Trippier, Mousa Dembélé, Dele Alli, Christian Eriksen and Son Heung-min. (Note: I forgot to include Erik Lamela, who signed in 2013.)

They were also mostly the core of the team that reached the Champions League final in 2019, where they found themselves Klopped. 

Those eleven arrived (or made their debuts) respectively in 2012, 2009, 2015, 2009, 2012, 2015, 2012, 2015, 2013, 2011 and 2015. The average year of “arrival” was 2012 (some seven years before they could have become Champions of Europe), and although some of those featured as new players in the ill-fated title race against Leicester in 2015/16, that was a team that had been together for ages.

In truth, of the 12 players signed between 2016 and 2019, Spurs could have saved £155m and just focused on Moura, and bar some squad depth, the rest mostly added very little. When Sissoko finally came to life, it was after years of being a bit of a joke. 

That team was not only managed by Mauricio Pochettino with his fitness work and attention to detail, but that was a proper team. It can be hard to add to such a united, connected unit, working under a manager who creates such bonds. They seemed like a bunch who protected one another. 

Obviously the key eleven players were mostly signed as transfers; but over a long period of time. The difficulty was improving on those players, and especially, improving on the shared understanding gained through years training and playing together.

And one issue is the commitment of the players you do sign.

I personally thought it was pretty disgraceful when Spurs and Villa’s new players chose to go and play for Argentina and Colombia during the controversial international break where the Premier League had told its players not to travel to South America, due to Covid-19 restrictions meaning they could not return directly to England. 

Giovani Lo Celso (fairly new), Cristian Romero (brand new) and Davinson Sánchez, at Spurs, and Villa’s Emiliano Martinez, signed in 2020, and Emiliano Buendia, signed in 2021, went off against the league’s advice. They all missed at least the next league game for their clubs, due to quarantining.

At the time – and let this sink in – Spurs were top of the table. 

Yes, it was just three games, but it was also three wins, including against Manchester City. Villa, meanwhile, were a respectable 11th, having won and drawn their previous two games. 

Villa lost that weekend with their missing players, and since then the run is now five losses from seven league games.

Spurs also lost that weekend, and their run is also five losses from the next seven league games. It cost Nuno his job. 

While these sample sizes are small, as soon as I saw that these players had chosen their countries over their clubs – to the point where they would be away for vital league games – I noted on this site that it was a red flag.

Where’s the commitment to the cause that pays their wages? 

I know players want to play for their countries, but the edict was clear. And more fool those two clubs for giving them permission. 

As for what it would do to the group harmony at those clubs, I felt it created a two-tier system: while we train hard and slog it out on the weekend, you’ll be in sunny Croatia, doing a bit of jogging. 

This is even more vital if you’ve just arrived. Your job is to settle in the team. Gabby Agbonlahor just noted that: “I want to single out’ Buendia as he’s an Aston Villa ‘impostor'” (in that he’s not the player he was at Norwich). 

This is because at Norwich he had time to settle, and did not arrive with a record-breaking price tag or any kind of reputation. At Norwich he was not replacing a club icon (although if he fell down drunk in Croatia, he might have resembled Jack Grealish on a bender).

Here’s my issue, beyond the myopia of not respecting who (the fans of your club) pays your wages: if you do not put your club career first, your international career will atrophy anyway. 

Beyond small nations with few players to choose from (like Wales), anyone who isn’t in their club side will not be in their international side. You’re just making life harder for yourself, and you will increase your odds of falling into the flop category.  

Liverpool’s head of research, Ian Graham (PhD), noted at the recent StatsBomb conference that half of all transfers fail.

While he reached this conclusion in a different manner to me, this is something I first noted  in 2011 (that Dan Kennett called “Tomkins’ Law”), having analysed what was then around 3,000 Premier League-era players/transfers to see how many games they played and how much money they lost (or generated). 

Buy Now? 

It does feel to me that Liverpool need to start buying players again, given the age of a lot of the squad (albeit no single individual is over the hill, as James Milner just keeps building a bigger bloody hill), but they have to be the right players, at the right age, with the right attitude. 

New signings can make a team worse, which people seem to forget: the time it takes them to settle, get onto the right wavelength, learn how to press in unison, and so on. A new big-earner can upset the apple cart.  

I personally think that, for all the goals he scores, Cristiano Ronaldo makes Manchester United a worse team (as I expected when he signed). Certainly they, like Spurs and Villa, were having a much better start to the season than the form since (in this case, it was a new superstar arriving). Maybe it’ll prove wise to bring back a player about to turn 37, but how has it affected other players, and the team dynamics? So far it’s working in the Champions League, but not the Premier League. Equally, spending £73m on Jadon Sancho is not working at all, at this juncture. Big names, mega-fees, huge wages, and … regression (short-term, at least).

As Premier League teams get more organised, analytical and cohesive, the big immediate-impact signing seems a bit rarer, albeit almost all of the iconic game-changing signings made in the late ’90s by Arsène Wenger famously took time to settle; particularly Thierry Henry (half a season) and Robert Pires (almost a whole season), while Dennis Bergkamp was another slow starter a couple of years earlier.  

Liverpool, despite adding only Ibrahima Konaté who has played just three meaningful games (as the young centre-back adjusts and competes with world-class players), have made an unbeaten start to the league season and just set more club records: longest ever unbeaten run in all competitions (25, most of them this season); and the first four Champions League group games won. Scoring records have been broken, too, with a staggering streak of 3+ goals away from home, with back-to-back 5-0 wins, including the Reds’ biggest ever victory at Old Trafford. 

Again, this is not to say that buying players is bad, as clearly it isn’t; and the more you can spend, the greater your odds of success. 

But Klopp has always found ways to get more out of his players, turning £35m men into £150m stars. Equally, he’d turn academy graduates into £150m stars. (In time, how much will Kaide Gordon, Tyler Morton and Conor Bradley be worth, to name the three kids currently closest to the first team?) 

In another Athletic article, Damien Comolli (the man who brought Michael Edwards, Ian Graham, Jordan Henderson and Luis Suarez to Liverpool – as well as Andy Carroll, but let’s not go there), said:

“The issue now for the top clubs in the world is they are looking to recruit Superman. And that guy doesn’t exist,” Comolli said, “because he needs to be a very good tactician, he needs to be good at creating training sessions, he needs to develop young players, he needs to be good with the press, he needs to be a great leader, he needs to be a great communicator, he needs to be knowledgeable in sports-science and in medicine, he needs to have an opinion on players on the recruitment side, he needs to manage a staff of anywhere from 25 to 50 people, he needs to know how to ‘manage up’ — billionaires who have got a lot of businesses.

“And this Superman needs to fit with the club’s culture, whatever it is — whether it’s winning at all cost at Real Madrid, Bayern Munich or Juventus, whether it’s developing players at Tottenham and trying to win a trophy and getting into the Champions League, whether it’s trying to break into the top six at Everton et cetera, et cetera.

“Real Madrid went back to a coach (Ancelotti, who returned to the Bernabeu from Everton this summer) they sacked six years ago, Bayern Munich paid €25 million for (RB Leipzig coach Julian) Nagelsmann, who I think is brilliant but has never won anything and is 34. Juventus went back to (their coach from 2014-2019, Massimiliano) Allegri. I could go on and on and on.

“It just shows the market is small. Those people who can manage the big clubs and tick all the boxes are unique individuals and there are only a handful in the world that can do it.”

I think this is why – allied to the stellar scouting, canny negotiating and world-class data analysis – Liverpool have over-performed on transfers and won the biggest prizes without spending the most money.

Jürgen Klopp, via that list of attributes, is therefore a superman, backed by the best in the business. 

Wednesday, October 27, 2021

Magical Thinking, and the Total Reality Divergence Between Liverpool and Manchester United by Paul Tomkins

https://tomkinstimes.com/2021/10/magical-thinking-and-the-total-reality-divergence-between-liverpool-and-manchester-united/

In By Paul TomkinsFree

 

It’s the summer of 2015. Liverpool have finally got rid of Colin Pascoe and his shorts, but chaos will remain. (Turns out, it wasn’t Colin Pascoe’s shorts that were the issue. Who knew?)

James Milner arrives, but he already looks old and slow in the midfield. Great pro, but past his best. Jordan Henderson hasn’t been the same since 2013/14, but it doesn’t take long for me to feel that Milner and Henderson, together, is not the solution.

Daniel Sturridge, out injured, will never recover properly. Philippe Coutinho will start to fulfil his potential, but then leave when looking like the Reds’ best player.

Roberto Firmino arrives, but a journalist (now at Manchester United) will famously mock why the Reds spent £29m on such a hopeless misfit. Christian Benteke is the new great striking hope.

Liverpool will later sign the total Chelsea reject, Mo Salah, and hoover up more players from Southampton, including some young guy who at the time in an uncapped Dutchman moving from the Scottish league. The Reds will buy a low-key left-back who was relegated with a tiny club, who was almost considered too rubbish to play football a couple of years earlier.

Liverpool will eventually invest in a goalkeeper who, in 2015, aged 23, had played about a dozen league games of football.

The good news is that Liverpool will sign the phenomenal Thiago Alcantara; the bad news is that he’ll suffer terrible injuries. The one really big-name signing, from Bayern Munich (after Barcelona), is hobbled in only his second game for the club.

By contrast, at Manchester United, six years down the line in 2021, will have signed the world’s most expensive defender and broken the British transfer record (neither adjusted for inflation, mind).

The infuriatingly brilliant David de Gea – denier of many a Liverpool victory up to 2015 – will still be in goal, still at a good age. They’ll have added a returning superstar who has won half of the Ballon d’Ors awarded after 2015 (which to date, is two from four, with Covid cancelling those since 2019).

United will break the British transfer record for a midfielder who was voted into the Serie A Team of the Year in 2013–14, 2014–15 and 2015–16, and who will later inspire his country to World Cup glory. They’ll add the most exciting young English winger seen in years, who scored and assisted at a frightening rate in the Bundesliga.

They’ll add another World Cup winner, Raphael Varane, who will be at the heart of Real Madrid’s defence in three further Champions League successes, having already won one by 2015. They’ll have added a global superstar from Uruguay who has over 50 international goals, and who, in 2015, has just had a 30+ goal club season (and who, in a two year period soon after 2015, will score almost 100 goals). Juan Mata and the much hyped Anthony Martial will still be in the squad. (As will Phil Jones, but never mind.)

Liverpool will go to Old Trafford, in 2021, with James Milner, nearly 36, in their midfield. He’ll be alongside Henderson, now 31.

If you told me this in 2015 I’d have cried. Especially without any idea who the Liverpool manager would be. It seemed unlike it would be someone as elite as Jürgen Klopp.

When the score of 5-0 would be mentioned, via a crystal ball, I’d have said you don’t need to be clairvoyant to see that the Reds will get a right pasting.

Adjusted for inflation, the Reds’ £XI will be around £400m, ranking 4th in the Premier League, while United’s is over £700m, up there with Man City’s.

The Reds’ XI will contain players who, in the summer of 2015, were at Southampton, Hull City, Internacional (Brazil), Sochaux B, Paços de Ferreira (who still sound like a 1970s nightclub singer), Red Bull Salzburg, Fiorentina; and that nobody who arrived from Hoffenheim.

A free transfer from Schalke will be surprisingly left on the bench, along with yet another Southampton player, a reserve left-back from Olympiacos, another from Red Bull Salzburg, and some lad from Charlton. Plus, two kids from the Reds’ U18 side will feature.

Liverpool’s captain arrived via Sunderland a few years earlier, to much bafflement, including from Alex Ferguson (who chose Phil Jones instead), who will be watching from the stands when the historic 5-0 result occurs. How he must be laughing, I’d have thought, back in 2015.

United’s players to feature against the Reds on that historic day were, six years earlier, included those at Real Madrid (two), Juventus, PSG, Udinese and Napoli, and a Man City prospect who arrived via Borussia Dortmund. Plus the best keeper in the world as of 2015, de Gea, as one of the remaining title-winners from just two years earlier (2013) still on the books.

Clearly, Liverpool – with players bought only from mediocre clubs or as rejects from bigger clubs – will get trounced by the bigger-name, higher-paid superstars of Old Trafford. United have a winning mentality; indeed, proven winners. They’ve won it all. It’s in their DNA.

Indeed, United re-signing Ronaldo is seen by many as the greatest coup in the history of football; a player about to turn 37, to play with Edison Cavani, nearly 35.

But he’s a proven winner. A proven goalscorer. It’s like they’d still be saying that when he’s 89 and in a wheelchair; as if time does not move on.

At times, as of 2021, it feels like everyone lives in a world of magical thinking, where both sides of the political aisle deny clear scientific, political, logical and biological realities; and so the notion that Ronaldo, who can still finish, clearly, but cannot and will not run, will take a team, led by a mediocre manager and surrounded by talented slackers, to the title, seems the epitome of this collective dream-like unreality.

As I noted in the part-subscriber-piece yesterday:

“I also say this about managers; Gary Neville insisted yesterday that Jose Mourinho was the best manager in the world when United appointed him (!), whereas to me, Mourinho was well on the slide, and Klopp and Pep Guardiola were already well ahead in the way the game was changing.

“By 2019, Daniel Levy said Mourinho was one of the top two managers in the world when he appointed him. Liverpool had just won the Champions League against his club [and finished 2nd in the league with 97 points, I failed to add], and at the time of the appointment, were eight points clear of Man City on the way to winning the title, with 11 wins and a draw from 12 games. So Mourinho was better than Guardiola or Klopp?! These are people running football clubs, working on data that’s 5-10 years out of date.”

The past is seductive. But it’s not the route to the future. Sometimes it’s handy to go back there (to stem a horrific rot), but things change. Past achievements are valid, in terms of someone’s highest possible ceiling, but there’s a time context; as some people joked, Neville’s logic means he would have kept Ron Atkinson and not employed Alex Ferguson.

It means Atkinson, 82, would still be boss now, in this weird new posturing refusal to ever say a manager must be sacked (as if saying to sack someone means you’re A Bad Fan or a Bad Football Person.)

To never say that a manager’s time is up is as bizarre as to always scream that managers must be sacked. It’s another binary world without shades of grey. Brendan Rodgers did pretty well at Liverpool overall, but the best decision made by the club regarding Rodgers was to sack him.

You can learn from the past, but as I argued back in 2005, Liverpool would only move into the future by finding people who could mirror the cutting-edge thinking of Bill Shankly and Bob Paisley, but not by regurgitating the very ideas from the 1970s. Shankly and Paisley were innovators; innovators don’t copy what worked in the olden days. New bands who try and sound like the Beatles are not grasping the essence of the Beatles, which was that no one had ever sounded like the Beatles.

Klopp is an innovator, as well as having those more timeless managerial skills.

Alas, one thing that is now a little out of date – because books date – is “Perched: Jürgen Klopp’s Liverpool FC – Champions Of Everything”.

But it does include a section in how Manchester United fell from the very perch from which they had earlier helped knock Liverpool; and how the club’s fortunes had reversed, with Liverpool becoming the smarter thinkers.

A year on, Liverpool may not be fully perched right now, but unlike United, the Reds are in contention.

Since 2009, The Tomkins Times has been a paywalled site that also publishes free articles. We need paying subscribers to keep doing what we do, as we don’t run advertising, take any sponsorship money, or do any commercial things beyond the occasional book. If you don’t like what we do, then no problem. If you do, then consider subscribing and becoming part of our community where we mostly (but not exclusively) discuss football with intelligence and maturity; or sign up to the email newsletter on Substack. Also, one-off donations are greatly accepted here.

Finally, if anyone wishes to donate any internal organs, please contact a medical expert first, and to be sure to attach the correct postage.

More by Paul Tomkins